Decided to try bringing up the SGMII ports first.
Hmm, i wonder why port g12 wasn't responding? Easy fix with 30 seconds of hot air. Another failed solder joint from that same reel of 2013 era 33Ω resistors. Might be time to retire the reel?
Now it links up fine at gigabit speed, and the SGMII link is up.
But it's not responding over MDIO which is a bit of a head scratcher. I tried bruteforcing the entire 5 bit PHY address space (in case there was a problem with address straps) and got no response at any address.